Forecasting for Innovators: Exponential Technologies, Tools and Social Transformation

Catalog description

First we invent our technologies - and then we use our technologies to reinvent ourselves, as individuals, as communities and ultimately, as a planetary society. The result has been a vast wave of astonishing innovations that in turn have generated the profound challenges facing humanity today. You will work with a suite of forecasting methods essential to cultivating innovator's effective foresight, the ability to spot hidden trends, identify new opportunities, develop responsive innovations and anticipate unintended impacts in the face of exponential uncertainty. Our topical focus this quarter will be the Western US megadrought. We will develop an integrated forecast of its long-term trajectory, explore its implications and working as teams, translate our insights into innovation opportunities, encompassing engineering solutions, behavioral insights and policy recommendations. You will learn the basics of technology diffusion, and how to apply a variety of methodologies including scenario planning, field anomaly interaction, cross-impact analysis, expert judgment elicitation and design thinking tools.