Counterfactuals: The Science of What Ifs?

Catalog description

How might the past have changed if different decisions were made? This question has captured the fascination of people for hundreds of years. By precisely asking, and answering such questions of counterfactual inference, we have the opportunity to both understand the impact of past decisions (has climate change worsened economic inequality?) and inform future choices (can we use historical electronic medical records data about decision made and outcomes, to create better protocols to enhance patient health?). In this course I will introduce some of the most common quantitative approaches to counterfactual reasoning, as well as give a wide sampling of some of the many important problems and questions that can be addressed through the lens of counterfactual reasoning, including in climate change, healthcare and economics. No prior experience with counterfactual or "what if" reasoning, nor probability, is required.