Risk Analysis in the Earth Sciences

Catalog description

An introduction to concepts and methods of quantitative risk anlaysis with focus on water, climate, and energy related risks. GEOSC 450 Risk Analysis in the Earth Sciences is an introduction to concepts and methods of quantitative risk analysis in the Earth system. Key concepts include probability, impacts, risk, uncertainty, statistical estimation, and decision-making under uncertainty. Important methods to be covered are sensitivity studies, probabilistic prediction, and uncertainty analysis. Examples of risks to be analyzed include: drought, flooding, nuclear waste storage, and anthropogenic climate change. Students will also use simple risk analysis software (provided by the instructor and accessible without prior programming experience) to actively apply these concepts to example problems. The course is designed for advanced undergraduate students with a prior exposure to basic statistics and calculus.