Chance

Catalog description

Chance is a common word whose meaning can vary, but which generally applies to situations involving a certain amount of unpredictability. How does it differ from fortune – or luck? Is it synonymous with randomness? We all try to increase our chances of success; how do such efforts involve taking or minimizing certain risks? If philosophical discussions about chance can be traced back to antiquity, probabilistic and statistical concepts appeared more recently in mathematics. Starting with gambling strategies, the theory now applies to the core of almost all scientific and technical fields, including statistical and quantum mechanics, chaotic dynamics, phylogenetics, sociology, economics, risk management, and quality control. Bringing together materials and questions from philosophy, mathematics, and other disciplines, this course provides a journey in the history of ideas. Students will investigate key concepts (including independence, expectation, confidence intervals, or tests), consider their applications to specific fields of science, and illustrate them by computer experiments. Readings include excerpts from Lucretius, Pascal, Hume, Laplace, Peirce, and Hacking. Prerequisite: None. Fulfillment: CORE STS.