Advanced Statistical Inference and Machine Learning

Catalog description

A rigorous background in Bayesian statistics geared towards applications in finance, including decision theory and the Bayesian approach to modeling, inference, point estimation, and forecasting, sufficient statistics, exponential families and conjugate priors, and the posterior predictive density. A detailed treatment of multivariate regression including Bayesian regression, variable selection techniques, multilevel/hierarchical regression models, and generalized linear models (GLMs). Inference for classical time-series models, state estimation and parameter learning in Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) including the Kalman filter, the Baum-Welch algorithm and more generally, Bayesian networks and belief propagation. Solution techniques including Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, Gibbs Sampling, the EM algorithm, and variational mean field. Real world examples drawn from finance to include stochastic volatility models, portfolio optimization with transaction costs, risk models, and multivariate forecasting.