Natural Hazards, Reliability, and Insurance

Catalog description

Essentials of probability theory, random functions, and statistics are introduced via simple examples. These concepts are applied to (1) construct probability models for natural hazards, e.g., earthquakes, wind speeds, hurricanes, and floods, (2) calibrate these models to observations, and (3) develop Monte Carlo algorithms for generating samples of natural hazards. The focus is on applications rather than theoretical arguments. Approximate methods are used to characterize probabilistically system responses to natural hazards. System responses and properties are used to assess performance by reliability metrics and estimate insurance premiums for damages caused by natural hazards. Grades are based on individual and group assignments, a midterm, and a final project. The final projects for CEE 6770 will be significantly more demanding than those for CEE 4770 .